Value of physical exports to jump 5.存倉5pc next year, revised from an earlier forecast 3.5pc riseThe Trade Development Council (TDC) projects a 5.5 per cent rise in the value of Hong Kong’s merchandise exports next year.The figure, which puts in the shade the 3.5 per cent increase forecast for this year, shows Hong Kong’s exports are back on a path of sustainable, if modest, growth.“The peak of exports was in 2008. Then in the last few months of 2009 there was a big contraction. Things started to rebound in 2010, but last year’s numbers were 5 per cent to 10 per cent below 2008’s … While we may have just minor growth it still points to a positive trend,” said Nicholas Kwan, TDC’s director of research.The TDC tracks merchandise exports, or the export of physical items that would be tracked by customs.The Census and Statistics Department identifies trading and logistics as one of the city’s four key industries, employing a fifth of the workforce as of 2011.Re-exports of mainland goods account for 60 per cent of Hong Kong exports. The TDC data as such is a good barometer of the health of the ma儲存nland manufacturing sector and the economy generally, with a direct bearing on Hong Kong’s services-led economy.“In recent years, exports have not done so well because of subdued global demand. We are expecting that things will get better and, in the case of Hong Kong, we are banking on better exports to fuel growth in 2014,” said Louis Kuijs, a Hong Kong-based economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.Hong Kong exports are overwhelmingly dependent on the strength of demand in the major developed economies, namely the United States, the euro zone and Japan.Daniel Poon, a TDC economist, said the US looked resilient against a backdrop of stronger employment an improving housing market and gains in asset prices. The euro zone is also showing signs of recovery, given loose monetary policies, fiscal consolidation and structural reforms in a number of countries. Japan’s stimulus policies have put it on a path for growth.The TDC says trends such as the rise of online shopping favour Hong Kong’s strengths in logistics and air freight, which suit internet retailers’ needs for speedy and reliable delivery.迷你倉
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